Bibhuti Pati
The increase in temperatures in Leh compared to Jammu this summer necessitates a scientific investigation into a phenomenon that could potentially lead to an irreversible environmental imbalance in the mountainous region in the future. Ladakh, characterized as a cold arid area, is situated in the rain shadow zone during the Indian Summer Monsoon (South West Indian Monsoon) and the Indian winter monsoon, receiving an average annual precipitation of only 115mm in Leh. This low precipitation, combined with cold temperatures, classifies it as a cold-arid region within the Indian western Himalaya.
The scarcity of vegetation and limited rainfall are defining characteristics of Ladakh, marking it as a cold desert. In June, as the monsoon trough traverses the Indian subcontinent and reaches its northernmost point, Ladakh experiences no rainfall, while only minimal precipitation occurs in the region, particularly in Leh, during the retreat of the northeast monsoon in October and November. The majority of precipitation in this area is recorded during the winter and pre-monsoon months from December to March, primarily associated with Western Disturbances.
Various climate and weather datasets from the Climate Research Unit, a prominent institution focused on the investigation of both natural and human-induced climate change at the University of East Anglia in the UK, the National Centres for Environmental Prediction, which serves as the United Nations’ center for providing national and global guidance on weather, water, climate, and space weather, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, known for its projects on the re-analysis of meteorological data, have yielded differing conclusions regarding climate change in the Himalayas.
The discrepancies in the findings, which indicate rising annual temperature trends, a cooling period before the monsoon, and increased temperatures during both the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons, can be attributed to the extensive spatial diversity of the Himalayas, leading to varied responses among its sub-regions to climate change.
Nonetheless, the climate datasets indicate a notable warming trend in Leh, accompanied by a significant rise in precipitation. A comparative analysis provides intriguing insights into the climatology of Leh, revealing a warm period from 1901 to 1979, followed by a decrease in temperature from 1979 to 1991, and a subsequent rapid increase in temperature from 1991 onwards.
The examination of precipitation data reveals a period of low precipitation prior to 1970, followed by an increasing trend from 1970 to 1995, and a subsequent decline in precipitation from 1995 onwards. The observed trends in temperature and precipitation over various time frames indicate a notably inverse relationship in Leh. The relatively warm conditions before the 1970s were associated with lower precipitation levels, while the period from the 1970s to the mid-1990s saw an increase in precipitation alongside a decrease in temperature.
The significant rise in temperature and the decline in precipitation observed in the recent decades following the mid-1990s in Leh serve as a warning sign. Urbanization, typically a phenomenon of lowland areas, is now being observed in high mountain regions, where some areas are experiencing depopulation while others are witnessing a population concentration around market towns.
The nature of urbanization in these high-altitude regions is influenced by factors such as inaccessibility, resource constraints, and sensitivity to demographic changes, presenting a model that differs markedly from those found in developed lowland areas or in a Western context of urbanization. Currently, the fate of Ladakh is predominantly shaped by a centralized political authority from the lowlands, exemplifying an ‘internal periphery’ following the closure of trade borders with Central Asia and Tibet.
Consequently, the local economy is significantly dependent on tourism, which is influenced by fluctuations in both regional and international markets. The urbanization of Leh is characterized by natural population growth (the surplus of births over deaths), net migration, and the transformation of rural areas into urban spaces. According to the Census of India 2001, the urbanization rate in Leh district stands at 23%, which is relatively close to the national average of 28%.
Notably, the urban population of Leh experienced an average annual growth rate of 5.92% from 1981 to 2001, in contrast to the national average of 2.95% per year. The considerable ‘floating’ population, which includes circular migrants, tourists, and security personnel, tends to undercount the actual urban population in Leh. Analysis of satellite imagery from 1969 to 2017 reveals a significant demographic expansion, with the built-up area increasing fivefold from 36 hectares to 196 hectares.
This includes the construction of 9,260 new buildings between 1969 and 2003, 4,780 from 2003 to 2011, and 4,620 from 2011 to 2017. New developments, mainly residential and administrative structures, have transformed a large barren area to the east of Leh into a more urbanized environment. The recent surge in both domestic and international tourists in Leh city has further intensified the demand for new buildings, contributing to the concrete landscape.
The agricultural land has increasingly succumbed to the pressures of urbanization from 1969 to 2017, experiencing a decline from 1% in 1969 to 5% in 2003, and further escalating to 8% by 2017. In 1981, 12.75% of the Leh district’s total population resided in urban areas, a figure that grew to 24.43% in 2001 and reached 34.21% in 2011. The gradual increase in atmospheric temperatures in the Leh region, combined with urban development, has resulted in the city becoming an ‘urban heat island’ over time.
Although the current level of urbanization is moderate, it may have significant environmental consequences for this mountainous area. Future urbanization in Leh city could lead to challenges such as water scarcity and various forms of pollution, including water, air, and solid waste. It is imperative to address these issues promptly through collaborative efforts between the public and private sectors.
